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My latest COVID pondering relates to immunity. We’ve all heard the term but not sure exactly what it means. I decided to find out. Starting with the CDC website and entering “COVID Immunity” in the search box, I got my first surprise. What popped up was a list of articles all related to COVID vaccination. After digging around a little more on the website, I discovered this interesting tidbit, “Antibody tests for COVID-19 look for the presence of antibodies made in response to a previous infection or vaccination. They are an indicator of the body’s efforts to fight off the SARS-CoV-2 virus. (Here’s the important part.) None of the currently authorized SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests have been validated to evaluate specific immunity or protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection.” You might want to reread that last sentence a few times and let it sink in for a minute. I quickly reflected on all of the times I’ve heard some “expert” on radio or TV talking about immunity and all the articles I’ve seen making reference to immunity. And my internal response is WTF!
After the aforementioned declaration, there follows a great deal of scientific mumbo-jumbo I won’t repeat here. You’re welcome to go to the CDC website and read it for yourself. Finding the above somewhat of a dead end. My approach needed to change, so ground zero for the immunity chatter I’ve been hearing about for the past 9 months became my new objective. “Herd immunity” is a concept continually mentioned in the media, so I decided to investigate.
From JAMA Patient Page, dated October 19, 2020, “Herd immunity works to control spread of disease within a population when a specific amount of that population (threshold) becomes immune to the disease through vaccination or infection and recovery. When the immunity threshold is reached, susceptible individuals are protected from infection because ongoing spread of the disease is limited.” In a more recent article on the AMA website, dated August 21, 2021, titled “What doctors wish patients knew about COVID-19 herd immunity.” This article goes into further discussion about what herd immunity is and what it is not. Suffice it to say two experts on the topic are quoted in the article and let me sum it up this way, “we’re a long way from herd immunity.” Again, I’ve summarized for the sake of brevity and encourage those with an inclination toward statistics and sampling theory to go to the article.
Moving on. Surely there must be some basis for the vast amount of discussion that relates to immunity. If immunity is the ultimate Holy Grail in finding the path back to normalcy, my search continues.
Cue the National Institutes of Health (NIH). In a article dated January 21, 2021, “Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19.” The summary states, “the immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection.” I’m confused, how does this information relate to the aforementioned CDC information? To be completely honest I have no idea. The NIH information was based on a sample size of 200 people conducted by the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. My completely uneducated guess is the sample size isn’t large enough or there are other variables making the study unusable for making more blanket statements. Which has me pondering a host of new thoughts and questions. I’ve now decided we are in for what’s going to be a very long journey back to what I consider normal. For example, as I’m writing this and wearing my mask, I’m awaiting a flight that’s now originating from the airport I’m at but is delayed for 2 hours. I’m sure it has something to do with COVID but knowing won’t change the departure time so I’m not seeking the answer. The flight is 3 hours, I arrived at the airport, as required, a hour before departure and will have to wear this damn mask for about 7 hours. Sucks! I digress.
The ranges for herd immunity are from anywhere from 85 to 95% depending on the source. We’re currently at roughly 50% for the US. How long before we have herd immunity is anyone’s guess. If there’s another variant to the virus, do we start all over? How long it will be before we have anti-body testing that’s “valid” for determining immunity is currently unknown. From where I’m sitting, we’re moving at a glacial pace from the unknown to the known. From disinformation to useable information.
As a part of my journey down the immunity rabbit trail, I accidentally stumbled on to another extraordinarily interesting topic. My teaser for my next article is “autopsies.” Stay tuned.